Topics: This week’s drought monitor, a look at rain over the next week, and the CPC’s latest ENSO discussion.
High pressure begins moving off, rain spreads southeast
Currently in the Midwest, the area of high pressure that has kept parts of the Great Lakes region and the Mississippi Valley dry and quiet is making its way to the south. This is allowing a cold front, currently in the Dakotas and Upper Midwest, to progress farther to the southeast. This will cause showers and thunderstorms to develop along the cold front this afternoon, moving to the southeast from the Dakotas and the Upper Midwest to the Great Lakes region. Meanwhile, some spotty or isolated showers and storms are ongoing across the Plains. Some of these will fizzle out as the morning goes on, while new ones develop in their place this afternoon. This is thanks partially to the cold front, and partially to a pressure trough moving in from the Rocky Mountains. Severe weather chances are low today, and rainfall totals should stay below half an inch for the most part.
With the high pressure moving south, warmer temperatures will begin returning to the Midwest, starting with the Great Plains. High temperatures this afternoon should reach the 70s and 80s in just about all of the Midwest; with the western Plains reaching the upper 80s or even low 90s. Temperatures tonight should also be a little bit warmer than they have been, but morning low temperatures will remain in the 50s and 60s across the region. Light winds are expected for the most part, although more western parts of the Plains will see breezy winds.
Strong storms in the Northern Plains, scattered storms in the Great Lakes
By tomorrow, the high pressure will have made its way south of the Midwest; although it will still keep more southern areas of the region dry and quiet. The cold front in the north, which will stretch from west to east across the northern Midwest on Friday, will begin moving back to the north as a warm front. This will trigger some thunderstorms in the Dakotas tomorrow afternoon, and these storms will have some severe weather chances. Farther east, in the Great Lakes region, the frontal boundary will be a bit more stationary. Scattered or isolated showers and storms are expected to develop along it, but severe weather chances with these storms is considered low. Rainfall totals upwards of 1 inch are possible with the storms in the Northern Plains, while the storms in the Great Lakes stay below a quarter of an inch for the most part. Warmer temperatures will continues to spread tomorrow, with high temperatures across most of the Midwest reaching the 70s, 80s, and 90s. Low temperatures Friday night should remain in the 50s, 60s, and 70s across the region. Breezy to strong winds are expected.
Showers and storms continue in the north
On Saturday the warm front will continue to lift farther to the north, spreading the above normal temperatures farther to the north as well. At the same time, a cold front and a dry line will make their way east across the Plains. During the very late afternoon or evening hours, these two frontal boundaries are expected to trigger at least a few thunderstorms in the Upper Midwest. However, due to the very warm temperatures in the mid-levels of the atmosphere, it will be very difficult for thunderstorms to get going. Any thunderstorms that can develop will have a decent shot at producing severe weather. High temperatures on Saturday will reach the 80s, 90s, and 100s across much of the Midwest. Low temperatures Saturday night should stay in the 50s, 60s, and 70s. Breezy to strong winds are expected.
Meteorologist Brian Mette