Midwest Outlook…Several days of strong to severe storms and heavy rain ahead

Thunderstorms in the north, severe weather in the west
Today, a fairly strong upper level low is approaching the Midwest from the west.  This upper level low is pushing a surface low across the Rocky Mountains towards the western Plains.  At the same time, there is a long mainly stationary front stretching from Colorado through Michigan and up into Canada.  We also have a cold front moving southward from Canada into the northern Midwest.  The two frontal boundaries will grow closer together today, sandwiching the air in between them and forcing it upwards.  This will trigger a long line of showers and thunderstorms along the length of the stationary front.

Today’s severe weather outlook, CLICK FOR MORE INFO.

Midwest future radar from the NAM NEST forecast model, CLICK TO ENLARGE.

In the west, severe thunderstorms are expected to develop across Colorado and Wyoming this afternoon, and move into western parts of the Plains this evening.  During the overnight hours, both areas of thunderstorms will have the potential to become squall lines which could produce some wind damage.  Some spotty or isolated showers and storms are also expected in more southern parts of the Midwest, but not much is expected from them.  Heavy rain is expected today in the north, with some areas seeing upwards of 2 inches of rain.

Central Plains future radar from the HRRR forecast model, CLICK TO ENLARGE.

Today’s forecasted rainfall totals, CLICK TO ENLARGE.

Temperatures today will be very warm to hot south of the stationary front, while areas north of it stay warm as well.  High temperatures this afternoon will range from the 70s in the north to the 100s in the south.  Tonight’s temperatures will stay warm as well, ranging from the 50s in the western Plains to the 70s across much of the rest of the Midwest.  Breezy to strong winds are expected today.

Today’s forecast, CLICK TO ENLARGE.

Today’s forecasted high temperatures, CLICK TO ENLARGE.

Tonight’s forecasted low temperatures, CLICK TO ENLARGE.

Severe weather expected in the northern Midwest
Tomorrow, the surface low in the west will move to the northeast through the Plains, eventually ending up in Minnesota by tomorrow evening.  The low pressure will lift the stationary front back to the north as a warm front, and it will bring a cold front into the Plains behind.  Showers and storms will likely be ongoing tomorrow morning, but most of them should dissipate by noon.  During the afternoon hours, thunderstorms are expected to erupt along the cold front; stretching across the Great Plains.  The storms will continue into the overnight hours, moving into the Mississippi Valley.  Severe weather is expected with these storms, as are heavy rain totals.  Showers and storms are also expected to develop along the warm front, in the Great Lakes region and in the Ohio Valley.  Very warm to hot temperatures will continue across much of the Midwest, with high temperatures ranging from the 70s in the north and the west to the upper 90s or 100s in more southern parts of the Plains.  Temperatures tomorrow night will remain warm as well, ranging from the 50s to the 70s.  Breezy to strong winds are expected.

Tuesday’s severe weather outlook, CLICK FOR MORE INFO.

Future radar on Tuesday from the NAM NEST forecast model, CLICK TO ENLARGE.

Tuesday’s forecasted rainfall totals, CLICK TO ENLARGE.

Showers and storms in the Mississippi Valley, Great Lakes region
The low pressure will continue to the northeast on Wednesday, moving up into Canada.  The warm front and cold front will both move to the northeast as well.  Some showers and thunderstorms will likely be going Wednesday morning in the Mississippi Valley, the Ohio Valley, and some in the Northern Plains as well.  During the afternoon and evening, new thunderstorms will develop along both the warm front and the cold front, across the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys, and across the Great Lakes region.  There is a chance for some severe weather, and rain totals upwards of 1 inch are expected.  Hot temperatures will continue, but more western and northern areas will be a little bit cooler; thanks to the cold front.  High temperatures will still range from the 60s to the 90s or 100s.  Low temperatures Wednesday night will range from the 50s in the west to the 70s in the south and east.  Breezy to strong winds are expected.

Wednesday’s severe weather outlook, CLICK FOR MORE INFO.

Future radar on Wednesday from the NAM forecast model, CLICK TO ENLARGE.

Wednesday’s forecasted rainfall totals, CLICK TO ENLARGE.

Meteorologist Brian Mette